Human-made climate change is already causing record heat and disasters, yet fossil fuel consumption and emissions are still reaching new heights. Over two billion tonnes of household waste are produced each year, causing harm globally, yet the amount is projected to double by 2050. Global wealth has surged but so has inequality.
Trends like these are causing risks and hardship worldwide, and it is largely known what needs to be done to fix them. Why don’t we change course?
The new report finds that to create lasting change, we must look beyond superficial fixes and question our assumptions and the societal structures that lead us to behave as we do.
Time for a deep dive
“We need deep changes. But unless we explore the reasons behind our actions and question why we are doing what we are doing, we are only scratching the surface” explains Dr. Zita Sebesvari, one of the lead authors of the report and Deputy Director of 糖心Vlog破解版-EHS. “We often hear negative news and try to prevent the worst possible outcomes. But science tells us this is not sufficient. Our report outlines how we can rethink and restructure our world to create the positive outcomes we want.”
The report explores five main areas:
- Rethink waste: From trash to treasure
- Realign with nature: From separation to harmony
- Reconsider responsibility: From me to we
- Reimage the future: From seconds to centuries
- Redefine value: From economic wealth to planetary health.
The previous edition of Interconnected Disaster Risks had warned about risk tipping points and presented the societal changes needed to prevent them. This year, the authors picked up where the last report left off by developing a roadmap forward: The Theory of Deep Change.
Presented in a U shape, this theory takes problems the world experiences and dives down to their root causes, identifying the structures and assumptions in society that allow those problems to persist. For example, when a river is so clogged with plastic waste that it creates disastrous floods, people might criticize the waste management system and call for more recycling. However, the Theory of Deep Change first identifies the structures that allow waste to accumulate to begin with, such as single-use items or mass production systems. It then dives deeper into the assumptions that led to the creation of those systems, and that incentivize people to keep it going, such as believing that ‘new is better’ or that material consumption is a sign of progress.
Change starts at the roots
The scientists relate their model to a tree, where the visible outcomes are the fruits, but the real issues lie at the roots: Rotten roots produce rotten fruits.
However, even when we aim to solve problems, we tend to stay on the surface instead of solving the underlying problems. For example, humanity invests heavily in recycling as a solution to accumulating waste, meanwhile producing even more plastic than ever before. By not addressing the roots of challenges, which lie in societal values and assumptions, we fight an uphill battle, impossible to win.
Solar geoengineering is one example of how not addressing the roots of the issue can cause even further risks. Currently, there is growing interest in research and deployment of solar geoengineering technologies, such as spraying aerosols into Earth’s stratosphere to reflect sunlight back to space and lower average global temperatures. Hailed as a solution for climate change, this approach could have unpredictable impacts across the globe. Solar geoengineering is an attempt to leave the current system in place rather than committing to the real solution and phasing out fossil fuels, as well as an example of a unilateral decision being made in one part of the world that could have far-reaching consequences for others.
The Theory of Deep Change helps to imagine what better outcomes could look like. Examining the roots of the problem makes it possible to identify which assumptions and structures would need to change to create a better vision of the world. To create truly deep changes, the theory recognizes two types of actions that change the system: inner levers that affect our assumptions, and outer levers that affect our systems and structures.
An inner lever in the case of solar geoengineering would shift assumptions from prioritizing self-interest to viewing ourselves as responsible people caring about the global community. Outer levers can also be pulled to create international governance and commitments to work together to solve global problems. Both of these are needed in combination to create a deep change that will last and result in a better future.
Moving beyond the delta of doom
At the moment, humanity may find itself between a rock and a hard place: There is enough knowledge to know that a path out of the current problems exists, but we struggle to actually find and follow it, making the journey feel hopeless. This is referred to as ‘the delta of doom’. The report shows where and how changes need to be made. By shifting underlying mindsets, changing structures and recognizing the interconnectivity of everything around us, a new system that aligns with a desirable future can be created.
“Change comes from realizing that it is possible, and being determined to take the necessary action to see it through. Of course, it is not up to us individually to change the system, but neither can we ignore our role in that change” Caitlyn Eberle, one of the lead authors, states. “Our systems are not set in stone, and human-made problems can be unmade. This report shows that it is possible to move beyond incremental changes and create a world that is not just free from disasters but also thriving. It is possible to radically imagine a better world, believe in our power to achieve it and turn over a new leaf.”
Interconnected Disaster Risks is a science-based report designed to be accessible to the general public. First released in 2021, it has a different topical focus for each edition, with the aim to shed light on the interconnections that are at the root of today's global challenges, as well as possible solutions. Based on thorough scientific analysis, it includes technical background reports, this year for each of the five changes highlighted in the main report.
